According to @KobeissiLetter, oil has fallen below 59 dollars per barrel for the first time since May 2, the US 10-year Treasury yield is down 10 basis points to 4.05 percent, natural gas is down 5 percent to new monthly lows, copper is down 5 percent in its biggest drop since July, the Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, and the S&P 500 is still up over 32 percent in the past six months. Source: @KobeissiLetter, Oct 10, 2025. For traders, lower long-end yields and falling energy/industrial commodities have historically aligned with stronger risk appetite and higher sensitivity of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to equity and rates moves. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, Oct 2022; BIS Quarterly Review, Sept 2022. Equities advancing alongside easing yield and inflation pressures has been associated with improved crypto performance during accommodative policy cycles, while sharp commodity declines like copper’s drop can coincide with growth worries that raise crypto beta and volatility. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, Oct 2022; BIS Quarterly Review, Sept 2022.

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the next round of U.S.-China trade talks could produce another 90-day tariff pause, which would be the third in a row for a total of 270 days; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 15, 2025. If this guidance is confirmed by the U.S. Treasury, de-escalation headlines have historically coincided with risk-on flows, including S&P 500 futures strength and CNH appreciation during 2019 trade-truce news; sources: Reuters, Oct 11, 2019; Bloomberg, 2019 trade detente coverage. Near term, traders may watch USD/CNH for yuan strength, copper and semiconductor equities for China-sensitive beta, and BTC for potential risk-on spillover off the headline; sources: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 15, 2025; historical cross-asset reactions reported by Reuters and Bloomberg during 2019 U.S.-China tariff pauses.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the copper-to-gold ratio has dropped to its lowest level in at least 40 years, signaling a potential recession. This ratio, which has historically been an indicator for economic health, has halved over the last three years. Recent data shows a significant acceleration of this decline, with gold prices rising by 9% while copper prices have plummeted, highlighting a potential shift in market dynamics that traders should closely monitor.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, copper prices in New York reached a record high of $11,600 per ton, marking a 28% increase over the past three months due to rising tariff uncertainties. Concurrently, copper prices in London have climbed by 15%, reaching approximately $10,000 per ton, the highest level since June, highlighting significant market volatility and potential trading opportunities.

According to André Dragosch, China's economic performance has significantly increased, driving copper prices close to new all-time highs. This surge is crucial for traders as it signals potential shifts in commodity markets, impacting related sectors and investments.